OxRec (Oxford Risk of Recidivism Tool)
OxRec is a statistical risk calculator from the University of Oxford's forensic psychiatry group, used by probation officers. The Dutch version takes 13 items (sex, age, detention length, current and past violent convictions, marital status, education, employment, income, a neighbourhood score, alcohol and drug misuse, mental health problems) and returns the probability of general and violent reoffending within one and two years, banded low, medium or high. It is a Cox regression fitted on Swedish prison data and recalibrated in a Dutch validation. Officers complete it after their own structured assessment and set the score beside their judgement; they may follow it or depart with reasons, and it is annexed to advice for prosecutors and judges. The national inspectorate found in February 2026 that the Dutch software had swapped formulas and a wrong drug-misuse parameter since 2018, moving about 21% of general and 6% of violent scores into another band. Use was paused on 12 February 2026; the government says the aim is to resume after fixes.
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Weighted across four pillars · updated October 20, 2026
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